Whose To Blame?

The headline at Cubs.com reads, "Mark Prior likely to start season on the DL".  Wow, what a new flash.  Next they will be telling us "Beer likely to be sold at Wrigley".  This is now the third straight year that Prior will open the season on the DL after the magnificent season he had in 2003.  Kerry Wood will also start the season on the DL, where he spent a majority of the last three seasons.  It’s fair to say that as Wood and Prior go, so do the Cubs. No matter what changes were made off the field, those two pitchers will determine the success or failure of this season.  On average, a team looks for its pitchers to start thirty five games.  In 2003, when the Cubs were the champs of the division, Prior and Wood combined for 62 starts, threw 422 innings, had 32 victories, and took the Cubs to within 5 outs of the World Series.

After the 2003 season ended, Cubs fans were buzzing with the return of Greg Maddux.  This, along with one of the best rotations already, was going to propel us to a World Series.  It never worked out that way. Since 2003, Cubs fans have had to live with a series of disappointments regarding Wood and Prior.  Constant injury problems, misinformation given to fans, fluke injuries have kept Prior and Wood off the field, and the Cubs slowly sinking.  The Cubs tell everyone that these two guy are fine, then they say there is a minor problem, then we don’t see them for two months.  In the last two seasons for 2003, Woods and Prior have only had 80 starts, threw only 590 innings, and  accounted for 28 wins.  Here is a quick comparison for you

Stats                Prior and Wood 2003                Prior and Wood 2004 and 2005

Games Started          62                                                     80

Innings Pitched         422                                                    590

Games Won               32                                                      28

Say what you will about the last two seasons, the true reason that the Cubs have not been successful is that these two guys have not been healty.  I don’t want to hear about the bullpen, or not being able to manufacture runs, or anything else.  When they are gone, it puts more pressure on the hitters, it scews up the bullpen, and it makes things more complicated for Dusty.  It begins and ends with Wood and Prior.  With the two of them healthy, the Cubs are a playoff team.  With the two of them injured, they are a .500 ball club.  Period, end of story.

The question is, whose to blame for these guys not being healthy?  Let’s look at the prime suspects.

1. Dusty Baker:  A lot of people blame Dusty for using these guys in 2003.  I disagree with these people.  When you have a chance to win it all, you go for it.  My problem is that Dusty didn’t use these guys more.  If it was me, I would have had Wood relieve Prior in Game 6 or Prior relive Wood in Game 7.  McKeon did this, so did Bob Brenley in 2001.  If your bullpen is suspect and everything is on the line, you go with the best you have.

2. The Cubs training staff: This has been as big a problem as a team on the field.  The Cubs hired trainer Dave Tumbas in 2002 and was with the team until the end of the 2003 season.  Then the Cubs brought in Dave Groeschner for the 2004 season and fired him at the end of the year.  Apparently Groeschner was not licensed to be an athletic trainer in Illinois. Assistane trainer Sandy Krum was also fired after the 2004 season.  He claimed he was fired for reporting the Groeschner situation to Hendry.  He filed a wrongful termination lawsuit against the Cubs, which was dismissed.  Now we have Mark O’Neal.  That’s three different trainers since Dusty has been in town.  Has this led to some of the injury problems that Wood and Prior have?

3. Pitching coach Larry Rothchild:  Is there something wrong with the throwing routine of the Cubs pitchers?  Is there a mechanical problem that Rothchild is not addressing?  I don’t know, just asking.

4. The Tribune Corporation/Hendry:  Are we not being told the truth in order to sell tickets?  Why all these strange reports, which are denied by the Cubs but then are proven true?  Former assistant Sandy Krum claims that there was an attempt to cover up Prior’s elbow injury in 2004, making it look as it was just an Achille’s problem.  Will Carroll, a reporterwho wrote last month on Baseball Prospectus’ Web site that reliable sources had told him Prior was "having shoulder problems", was dismissed by the Cubs organization as not being a legitimate reporter.  Apparently Carroll knew something that the Cubs didn’t, or maybe they did.  The report on Prior came after 90% of the games this year were sold.

5. Prior and Wood themselves:  Zambrano has been here since 2003 and has not had these injury problems.  Greg Maddux is almost forty and he’s been fine.  There has been a lot of talk that Woods was overused even before he got to the Cubs.  There have been rumors that Prior may have been on steroids.  Maybe both of these guys are not taking care of themselves in the offseason or working out enough.  Maybe they are just injury prone.  Don’t tell me about Prior’s fluke injuries.  Even without those, he has missed enough time to give the Cubs trouble. 

Here we are entering 2006.  Our rotation, as it stands right now is ; Zambrano, Rusch, Maddux, WIlliams, and question mark.  Does this scare any of you?  Rusch and Williams have been horrible this spring, none of the young pitchers except Guzman look ready to play, and he doesn’t have enough experience. 

If the Cubs are to win the division this season, we need two of the three, Prior, Wood, or Wade Miller to be healthy.  If this doesn’t happen, the Cubs won’t finish higher than third in the division.